Bitcoin has climbed a long way since June. Now it is pulling back. That mix has traders asking one big question. Is the crypto bear market finally over? On Sept. 28, an investment bank analyst gave his answer. He sees a 75% chance that the crypto cycle has already turned. That is a bold call. It is also a hedged one. The same report admits that earlier recoveries have failed. So the story is not simple. In this crypto market analysis, we break down the numbers, the risks, and what the call means for bitcoin price and Coinbase stock today.
What the 75% Cycle-Turn Call Really Means
The call comes from Stephen Glagola, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. He published it on Sept. 28. It arrived alongside the firm’s return to coverage of Coinbase. Glagola uses bitcoin as a proxy for the entire digital asset market. That is a common shortcut. Bitcoin still sets the tone for most altcoins. His 75% figure is not a price target. It is a probability on the cycle itself. In plain terms, he thinks the odds favor the bottom being in. He leaves 25% for the opposite outcome. That leftover slice clearly matters.
Key numbers behind the call:
- Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to the June 30 closing low.
- The bottom arrived 8.8 months after the peak, versus about 12 months in past cycles.
- The last three bear markets fell about 82% on average.
- Bitcoin rebounded roughly 44% from its June 30 close near $58,500 to about $84,400 on Sept. 26.
Why This Bear Market Looks Different
Timing is the first difference. Past bitcoin bear markets ran about 12 months on average. This one found its low in roughly 8.8 months. That is faster. Depth is the second difference. Earlier cycles lost around 82% from peak to trough. This time the drop was about 53%. That is shallower. Bulls read this as a sign of maturity. They point to deeper institutional participation and easier access through ETFs. Bears read it differently. They argue the market may still owe investors more pain. A short, shallow drop can also mean the real flush never arrived. The debate is fair.
Bitcoin traders love the four-year cycle. The idea is simple. Big advances get followed by long declines. Then the pattern repeats. Yet timing and depth have varied each time. Fidelity made a similar point in its Sept. 1 crypto market outlook. It said the low may already be in. It also warned of a possible fresh decline later this year. Fidelity added that bitcoin’s changing market structure could make old cycle timing less reliable. That is an important note. A model built on a handful of past cycles is a small sample. Treat it as a guide, not a rule.
Bitcoin Price Recovery: Strong, but Not Clean
Look at the price action. Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26. That is about 44% above its June 30 close near $58,500. It is a big move in under three months. Then came a dip. On Sept. 28, bitcoin slipped to about $83,100. That was roughly 1.6% lower on the day. Nothing dramatic there. Still, pullbacks matter in a young recovery. Doubt often follows the first bounce. What matters is whether dips get bought. Bitcoin.com News reported that bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.39 billion in the latest week, the best since October 2025. Watch this trend closely in October.
Another analyst sees a bullish signal in holder behavior. A Sept. 24 report looked at the average purchase price of bitcoin holders. It found a crossover that its author read as confirmation of a bull market. But method matters. Glagola compares history across cycles. The cost-basis view tracks what holders paid. The two tools measure different things. Neither one can promise where price goes next. Together they show a growing camp of analysts who lean bullish. Agreement among analysts is not proof. Markets have a habit of humbling confident forecasts. Use each signal as one input, not the whole decision.
The Warning Signs Investors Should Not Ignore
Risks that could derail the recovery:
- Failed rallies: earlier bear markets saw bounces above 30% that later collapsed.
- Missing capitulation: onchain indicators have not shown the deep washout seen near past bottoms.
- Weaker stocks: a slide in equities could drag crypto down with it.
- Fed tightening: renewed rate hikes could pressure risk assets.
Now the uncomfortable part. Glagola noted that earlier bear markets contained rallies above 30% that later failed. The current bounce is much bigger than that. Yet size alone does not prove a bottom. He also found that onchain indicators have not shown the deep capitulation seen near earlier lows. Capitulation is the moment when weak holders give up and sell at any price. It often marks the final low. Its absence does not automatically kill the bull case. It does keep a second leg down on the table. Prudent investors should size their positions with that scenario firmly in mind.
Why Coinbase Sits at the Center of the Call
The cycle call is also a stock call. KBW resumed coverage of Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) with an Outperform rating. The price target is $237. The stock was cited at $195.11 in the firm’s report. That implies roughly 21% upside if the analyst is right. The logic is direct. A crypto recovery lifts trading volume. More trading lifts exchange revenue. Glagola also expects earnings growth beyond spot trades. He points to stablecoin revenue, derivatives, and prediction markets. Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to event outcomes. Diversification matters a lot here. It can soften the blow when spot volumes cool.
The operating data backs part of the story. Coinbase reported a record 10.3% share of crypto trading volume in the second quarter. That is up from 9.1% in the first quarter. Average USDC holdings across its products reached $20 billion. USDC is a stablecoin designed to hold a value of $1. Glagola estimates that Coinbase’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA will beat consensus by 24%. That assumes a moderate recovery in trading. The whole forecast leans on the cycle turning. CEO Brian Armstrong said on Sept. 10 that he is confident bitcoin hit its cycle low. Remember, he also leads an exchange.
How to Use a Probability Call
A probability is not a promise. A 75% call means the analyst sees three good outcomes for every bad one. It does not mean bitcoin rises in a straight line. Think of a weather forecast. A 75% chance of sun still leaves room for rain. Smart investors plan for both. Spread entries over time instead of betting everything at once. Keep cash ready for dips. Set clear exit rules before emotions take over. This is general education, not financial advice. Every investor has different goals and risk limits. Do your own research, and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor.
What to Watch Next
Macro deserves special attention. The KBW report names weaker stock markets and renewed Fed tightening as key risks. Bitcoin.com News has also called this bitcoin’s most crowded week. Crypto no longer trades in a vacuum. Rate decisions, equity swings, and policy headlines all feed directly into bitcoin price. A cycle turn can be real and still get interrupted by outside shocks. That is how many recoveries stall. So follow the data, not just the chart. Track rates, watch stocks, and note how bitcoin reacts on bad news days. Resilience on red days often says more than strength on green ones.
Your watchlist for October:
- Price hold: does bitcoin defend the recent $83,000–$84,000 zone?
- ETF flows: can inflows repeat the $2.39 billion week?
- Onchain data: any sign of real capitulation?
- Macro: Fed decisions and stock market direction.
- Coinbase: does it defend its record 10.3% volume share?
Final Verdict: Is the Crypto Bear Market Over?
So, has the crypto cycle turned? Possibly. A KBW analyst says the odds are 75%. The evidence is real. The drop was shorter and shallower than past bear markets. Bitcoin has rebounded about 44% from its June close. ETF demand has picked up. Yet the warning signs are real too. Onchain data has not shown deep capitulation. Earlier rallies have failed. Macro risks remain live. The smartest stance is neither blind optimism nor panic. Respect the odds, respect the risks, and always stay flexible. We will keep tracking bitcoin price, ETF flows, and Coinbase stock closely as the story develops.
